Lula Wins Brazil’s Election and Secures a Fourth Term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday’s Brazil election runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro and will lead the country for a fourth time. With more than 99.9% of polling stations counted, he had 51.78% of valid votes to Flávio’s 48.22%, a lead of more than 4.4 million votes that makes a comeback mathematically impossible.

The figures come from the official count of Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Polling firm Datafolha projected Lula’s victory, and Bloomberg reported that the leftist leader had secured a fourth term, something no president had done before in Brazil’s history.

A comeback from second place

Lula, 80, went into the runoff trailing. In the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro finished first, defying the polls, with 47.03% of valid votes to the president’s 45.16%. According to CBS News, it is the first time since the end of Brazil’s military dictatorship in 1985 that the runner-up in the first round has gone on to win the presidency.

The runoff campaign was bitter, with moments of high tension such as the televised debate between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, and the polls reached election day showing the two candidates virtually tied.

A seesaw night and a controversial extension

Election day was marked by the decision of Supreme Federal Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, Lula’s former lawyer, to extend voting until 7 p.m. He was responding to a request from the president’s campaign, which complained about a shortage of buses in Salvador and other cities in Bahia; Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) also complained about reduced bus service in São Paulo.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign had also asked the TSE to extend voting in 17 municipalities in São Paulo, Paraná and Santa Catarina, citing rain, flooding and road closures, Exame reported. The TSE ordered that only polling stations that still had voters in line at 5 p.m. stay open, paused the release of results and resumed it at 7 p.m. Brasília time (6 p.m. in Miami). For a closer look at the dispute, read our analysis of whether the voting extension decided the race.

The move drew sharp criticism from Bolsonaro’s camp. Flávio’s campaign coordinator, Rogério Marinho, called it “shameful and untimely”; São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas accused the ruling party of throwing the election into turmoil “because it was sure it would lose,” and Senator-elect Marcel van Hattem announced an impeachment request against Zanin. The Electoral Prosecutor’s Office had argued before the TSE that polls should close at 5 p.m. as planned.

When the count resumed, the race was neck and neck. Flávio took the lead with about 14% of ballots counted and was ahead by more than 330,000 votes with 30% counted, according to TSE data compiled by Bloomberg Línea. As results came in from the Northeast, where Lula was winning all nine states with between 62% and 76% of the vote according to partial results published by Exame, the balance tipped in the president’s favor.

What changes after the Brazil election

Under a constitutional amendment, the new presidential term will begin on January 5, 2027, rather than January 1 as in the past, the Brazilian Senate confirmed.

Markets reacted immediately. According to Bloomberg Línea, the November real contract in Chicago fell more than 9%, to roughly 5.51 reais per dollar, and the largest U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund of Brazilian stocks, EWZ, plunged about 18.6% in after-hours trading, while InfoMoney reported a drop of nearly 20%. Bloomberg Economics analysts had estimated that a Lula victory could weaken the real by more than 3.5%.

The defeat halts the Bolsonaro family’s bid to return to power. Flávio, 45, had promised to free his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted in 2025 of plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Relations with Washington will also be under scrutiny: Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025 tied to that trial, and on Sunday he said he was following the election without endorsing either candidate.

The result also hits close to home for the Cuban diaspora. Lula kept warm relations with Havana during his previous terms, and he will remain at the helm of Latin America’s largest economy at a time when several countries in the region have elected right-leaning governments close to the United States.

In the governor’s races decided in the runoff, Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) won in Espírito Santo, Omar Aziz (PSD) in Amazonas, Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) in Tocantins and Cadu (PT) in Rio Grande do Norte. Celina Leão (PP) in the Federal District and Mailza Assis (PP) in Acre, who took office as governors in April after their predecessors resigned, were confirmed in their posts.

As of this writing, Flávio Bolsonaro had not publicly conceded.

With information from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, the Brazilian Senate, Datafolha, Reuters, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Línea, InfoMoney and Exame.

Update, Oct. 25, 2026: This story was updated with the near-final count from the Superior Electoral Court (more than 99.9% of polling stations); an earlier version cited partial results with 99.77% counted. The attribution of the first-round comeback record was also clarified, and the request for a voting extension by Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign was added for context.