NYT/Siena poll: Democrats lead seven key Senate races

Democratic candidates lead their Republican rivals in seven key U.S. Senate races, according to the NYT/Siena poll, the final major pre-election survey from The New York Times and the Siena Research Institute ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. It was conducted October 23 to November 1 among 5,708 likely voters.

The poll was released on the night of Sunday, November 1. The widest lead is in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed (D) has 53% to Mike Rogers (R) at 42%, an 11-point gap. In Texas, James Talarico (D) reaches 50% to 43% for Ken Paxton (R); in Maine, Troy Jackson (D) has 51% to 45% for Susan Collins (R); and in Kansas, Adam Hamilton (D) stands at 49% to 44% for Roger Marshall (R).

In Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D) has 49% to 44% for Jon Husted (R), who holds the seat as an appointee after JD Vance resigned to become vice president.

The tightest races in the poll are Alaska, where Mary Peltola (D) leads Dan Sullivan (R) 48% to 46%, and Iowa, where Josh Turek (D) edges Ashley Hinson (R) 48% to 47%. Peltola is also the only Democratic candidate of the seven whose standing against her opponent did not improve from the previous Times/Siena poll, according to The New York Times.

The NYT/Siena poll leads should be read with caution. Margins of error range from ±3.3 points in Texas to ±4.8 in Alaska and, according to The Hill, only the Democrats in Michigan and Texas lead outside the full margin of error; the other five races are statistically tied.

Florida and the Senate landscape

In Florida, which is not among the seven states in the NYT/Siena poll, an earlier Times/Siena survey, listed by Forbes with an October 28 date, shows Ashley Moody (R) at 50% to 44% for Angie Nixon (D). Moody holds the seat as an appointee after Marco Rubio resigned to become secretary of state. Among the races with Times/Siena polls compiled by Forbes, it is the only one where the Republican candidate is ahead.

Republicans control the Senate with a 53-47 majority, with the 47 including two independents who caucus with Democrats. They regained control in 2024 by winning West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana. The 2026 midterms put 35 seats on the ballot: 33 regular seats and 2 special elections created by the Vance and Rubio vacancies.

NYT/Siena poll: Trump approval and late deciders

Thirty-eight percent of likely voters in the seven NYT/Siena poll states approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance, even though he won five of those states by double digits in 2024. The same poll shows that voters who decided in the last month favor the Republican Party by nine points across the seven Senate races, although the coverage reviewed does not specify what share of the electorate that group represents.

An NBC News poll published November 1, based on 1,000 registered voters interviewed October 28-30 with a margin of error of ±3.1 points, finds 52% prefer Democratic control of Congress and 45% prefer Republican control.

Sixty-four percent say Trump has fallen short of their expectations, and 37% of Republicans believe he has fallen short of his promises. In addition, 51% say they are dissatisfied with their financial situation and 49% satisfied: the first time in 30 years of NBC News polling that the dissatisfied outnumber the satisfied.

The Latino vote and national figures

A Pew Research Center survey conducted September 28 to October 4 finds Latino registered voters favor Democratic House candidates 51% to 24%, with another 18% unsure.

Among those voters, 86% call the economy very important, 80% health care, 75% education, 69% the future of democracy and 64% immigration.

Nationally, the Silver Bulletin average from analyst Nate Silver put Democrats ahead by 8.9 points on the generic House ballot (51.5% to 42.6%) on Monday, November 2, according to Forbes. NBC News counted 56,144,276 early votes nationwide, in person and by mail, through 2 p.m. ET that same Monday, as reported by Argentina’s La Nación.

Results of the November 3 vote were not available when this article was published. The NYT/Siena poll figures were checked against coverage by Forbes, The Hill, USA Today and Fox News, because the original New York Times article could not be accessed directly.